this post was submitted on 16 Sep 2024
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The argument put forth is not that the chances of them being right is small, but that because they can't all be right, they must all be wrong. I gave a counter example that demonstrates, pretty clearly, that this logic doesn't make sense. I'm not comparing religious beliefs to a D6, but giving a demonstration as to why the logic is bad.
Gotcha, I see where you're coming from. I think that the phrase isn't meant to be taken as cold hard logic but a rule of thumb for the default position on a theory. To reiterate, we don't know that any religion is right, but because they contradict each other, we do know that some must be wrong. Since none provide proof, and especially because they all contradict each other, a reasonable person would assume that they're all all wrong until actually finding some evidence.
So yeah, the way it's worded it does sound like a logical expression, but really it's "If 20 people tell you the answer and they all give you different answers without showing their work, it's not safe to bet that any one of them are right"