British Columbia

I don't need to scroll down as the popular vote is at the top of my link. You would know that, and the fact that my link is just a better version of yours, if you actually were here in good faith and followed the link.

The NDP, using the source you provided, have a 78% chance of winning a majority government even with the popular vote being as close as it is. The popular vote is the only metric the BCCons look good in, which is why it is the only metric people like you are using.

It is also important to point out that the popular vote is not based on a poll, which is explicitly stated, and even less meaningful than it would be otherwise:

"This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here."

Take care now, bye bye then.