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Both pre and post convention polls have MOE.
so if a net change between the two is within the margin of error, you can't state with confidence that it's an increase and not just random noise
I suppose that confidence would need to have it's own margin of error. But it seems silly to say we can't say anything from such a significant difference.
I'd say the likelihood is still on the side that Harris is doing better than Trump.
What? I can say with reasonably certainty that if other polls match their results, which they do, then the MOE is meaningless. I can also say that since the same pollster and ABC took both polls, ABC is straight lying when they say there was no bounce. Their own data says otherwise.
no that isn't how statistics works
if you look at only their own data then no, there was a statistically negligible increase
FFS. You don't know how polls work. There are always small increases when you reach 50% The more important issue in these polls is that Trump has a ceiling of ~46%