Linux
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The vast majority of people just want a computer to do computer things and could care less about what it does other than that. Microsoft will continue to make installing Linux a huge pain and the manufacturers of hardware will continue to prefer windows for kickbacks and internal politics. There will be an uptick, but the fragmented ecosystem, lack of support for even just a handful of programs (thanks anti-cheat), and the fact they dominate the market will mean windows users will almost all use whatever windows forces them to use.
Anyone who thinks this is the last straw underestimates the tolerance of the general population to anti user BS. I would say the only thing that would meaningfully change market share would be if somehow MS changed every background to a dick and refused to change it because that is what their product team said people wanted. Even then it would only be like 5% who would string together both the will and the know how to switch their OS.