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As usual, national polls mean nothing since we don't have national elections.
But let's see where it stands in the states that count, all of these numbers are from before the DNC and Kennedy dropping out, so we'll need a re-run in a week or two. I'm also adding some states people have been talking about.
Arizona: Toss up. Tie, Trump +1 +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Nevada: Harris +6, +8, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico: Harris +8, +9
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
Texas: Trump +5, +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/texas/
Georgia: Trump +1, +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Florida: Trump +5, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/
North Carolina: Toss up. Tie, Harris +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
Virginia: Harris +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
Pennsylvania: Toss up. Harris +1, +2, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Michigan: Harris +6, +7, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin: Harris +6, +7, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Minnesota: Harris +5, +7, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
Huge shifts in Nevada, New Mexico, Michigan and Wisconsin which, under Biden, were a loss to Trump and shortly before the official shift were still barely Trump.
Trump is up in Texas, but only +5 or +6 which is consistent with the +6 win in 2020 and +9 in 2016.
Florida and Georgia are not the toss up states people are making them out to be.
The Muslim Pro-Gaza vote has had 0 impact in Michigan. Still Harris' race to lose there.
Overall, this is the best showing for the Democrats so far this year, let's plot it on the map:
Of the three toss up states, a win in either PA or NC puts Harris over the top. Arizona does not. She's 2 short if she gets AZ but not PA or NC.
Trump needs BOTH PA and NC to hit exactly 270. PA + AZ he's at 265. NC + AZ he's at 262.
This is really the first time in months that the electoral math has been going away from Trump.
As a North Carolinian I have to say it feels really bad knowing your state is actually blue, but it's gerrymandered so hard that it's red and that it will likely stay that way. I will do my best to make it blue again.
I'm terrified of Mark Robinson winning the governor race.
Gerrymandering has nothing to do with the presidential election.
No - they have other methods of voter supression for that
...Which do directly relate to being gerrymandered.
Oh no I mean shitty practices like shutting down polling stations, throwing people off voter rolls, etc.
I'm agreeing with you
What a wonderful "democracy". The candidate with +7 is still a maybe to win.
The State polls change about a week after the national polls. Give them time to catch up.
High quality post.☝️
Norh Carolina is the state I'll be watching most closely.
NC and PA should both be closing and reporting at the same time, but PA has a higher population, so should take longer to get the counts.
Actually, by population, PA is the 5th largest state, behind California, Texas, Florida and New York. North Carolina is #9.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_population
I really like those numbers! Last time I looked at a polling map, it was Trump needing to win just one battleground state. Now it looks like Harris is in that seat.
As a great example of your point, my vote for Harris-Walz will be one of an overwhelming majority in my state. But that majority we contribute doesn’t really count past that 50%. MY state is predictable, just like the popular vote seems to be trending g bluer again, but what happens in Pennsylvania has so much more impact.
Yeah, there was a point where Biden needed PA, MI and WI and was behind in all three. Losing any one was enough to lose the election. That was just before he dropped out.
Harris is up in MI and WI and PA is a tossup.
It looks like they don’t even care enough to poll in my state. At 538.com, the last listed survey still puts Biden in the lead by 18-21 points. I wonder if that will change with Harris, LoL
Quite a few states are just a given they're going to go one way or another so there's no point spending money on polling there.
My state is the same, nothing in a month:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/oregon/
We can infer some things from the national poll though - of course this is all fuzzy statistics but they're always saying something like a +5 for dems in the national polling is roughly equal to an electoral victory.
The problem is if the poll over or under represents California or New York the numbers might not actually mean much.
Huh. I didn't know that Harris was doing so well in Michigan. Maybe she doesn't need the Arab vote after all!
She wasn't until recently.
But union vote >> Arab vote in that state.