this post was submitted on 14 Aug 2024
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What does it even mean to be "losing the AI race"? So far no one is winning. Yeah some have made early moves, but it still remains to be seen if that actually translates into success.
Hosting AI models and AI conversations as a service (like ChatGPT) won't be a viable billion dollar business model for long, considering that there is so much competition. And most of the AI features big tech companies are pushing for now will be so ubiquitous in the near future, users will just expect anyone to have them. It won't be the "killer app" they are looking for.
There's oodles of companies and open-source developers pupping out thousands of services and implementations of any AI feature ever.
Meta are dominating open source models (barely) and Micrsoft are doing amazing AI research.
Google's models are fine, from my perspective their management's strategy is just garbage. Blaming their workers is a real classy move.
And in general no one knows if all these crazy AI investments every large company is doing will even be profitable. Ridiculous hardware investments that won't be necessary since 100-10000x AI efficiency improvements are on the horizon, when you consider realistic hardware, software and data innovations currently maturing from research to real products.
The one of the only use cases I could see make hundreds of billions of dollars is AI entertainment, mainly movies, series and video games. Because there you could actually create products people would have to buy from you.
That or something horrible like using AI to manipulate people for profit, spy on people for profit, etc. You know, what Google already does best. Imagine how much money they could make with AI brainwashing and AI surveillance. I could see them being able to make anyone buy anything at any price, 100x more efficiently than they do now.