this post was submitted on 12 Aug 2024
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The federal Liberals and Conservatives want to "solve" the housing crisis by making it easier for builders to build new units.

Sadly, with interest rates and construction prices at current levels, it seems unlikely that private companies will be able to provide the 3.5 million houses we need to restore affordability.

We need all levels of government to start building housing, not just wait for white knights from the private sector to ride in and save our middle class dreams.

Residential property developers are facing rising insolvencies as they struggle with higher borrowing and construction costs โ€“ and industry experts warn the trend is likely to worsen as interest expenses remain elevated.

...

At this pace, Canada is on track to reach about 240 real estate insolvencies this year, which would be 57-per-cent higher than 2023 and 13-per-cent higher than 2009, when a wide swath of businesses ran into problems owing to the financial crisis and global recession.

...

And that does not include the number of developers and projects that have been forced into receivership for not paying bills. The Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy does not include receiverships with its publicly available bankruptcy statistics. However, insolvency experts say they are seeing more projects go into receivership.

So far this year, the real estate sector accounts for 55 per cent of the receiverships recorded by Insolvency Insider Canada, a website that tracks the largest insolvencies in the country. That compares to 30 per cent last year and 33 per cent in 2022.

...

Today, the cost of residential construction is 81-per-cent higher across Canadaโ€™s major cities compared to 2017 and more than double โ€“ up 107 per cent โ€“ in the Toronto region, according to Statscan data.

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[โ€“] nyan@lemmy.cafe 5 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Thing is, there's still what you might call a stagnation space between "line goes up" and "must declare bankruptcy", one in which even a publically traded company can ride for a year or so without the shareholders getting too anxious while they wait for the line to start going up again. Yes, you'll get the occasional company cratering by doubling down on a bad decision made in pursuit of line-goes-up, but 240 of them suggests that there's something more going on here.

It may be that the issue is the "higher borrowing costs" that the article alludes to, and the way these companies have been conditioned to do business causes them to overextend themselves by borrowing too much. That means that the ones that stay afloat will be the ones that can correctly balance the risks inherent in taking out loans.