this post was submitted on 08 Aug 2024
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Mastodon thread about it: https://infosec.exchange/@littlealex/112925288375029203
note: ukrainians can just mine all that equipment at their convenience, they hold ground there. in case of any risk of russian approach they can just blow it up to smithereens, because contract for transit through this pipeline ends this december, neither side wants to extend it, and the only side effect is hungary going without gas supply - and it's closed already anyway
If they do that, they get on the bad side of all the countries that depend on that gas.
But, if it's destroyed by Russian artillery as the Russians try to re-take the territory, the blame falls on the Russians.
that'd be mostly slovakia and austria
There's no way they actually occupy it long-term. They only deployed a couple battalions worth of troops. But it does send a strong message.
Honestly as second fronts go… if the opportunity presented, the clear plan would be to take the rail hub at Kursk and block in the city while rolling SE. It would create a long logistics problem for the invasion, and cause invasion troops to need to reroute NW or face attack on an open flank.
They could also destroy as much oil & rail infrastructure as they can while they're there. Plus, this might divert Russian attention in the South like in 2022. In that case, Ukraine could do another push for Zaporizhia or Mariupol and cut off Russian supplies to Crimea and Kherson
And serves as plausible reason that it gets "accidentally" destroyed in a retreat.
They would definitely have good reasons to hide endless mines that could destroy it from a distance
Makes Russia defend their whole border instead of just inside Ukraine.
That was super helpful