this post was submitted on 18 Jul 2023
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Plus we're clearly undershooting our estimates and giving much more. Russians will try to estimate how many international gifts they deny their enemy, counting ammo cases around arty dumps before dropping incindiaries, etc. It makes sense to give Ukraine ~20% more than we advertize, so that if/when Ivan says "we got all the advertized Himars or Drones or whatever" they can get a nasty kick in the balls for taking the risk to escalate, believing the threat is gone.