forecasting

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/4750716

Human hibernation has made some strides recently. I think a year or so ago a Wired mag article said the only significant unsolved problem is shivering. They have a cocktail of drugs that makes hibernation possible apart from the fact that people shiver at low temps.

If they solve this, I will gladly prefer to be shipped as cargo on a sail boat or airship so long as someone tends to a heart monitor to ensure a few heartbeats per min or whatever is still happening. No more Gestappo airport security, stresses of delayed flights, screaming babies, people eating Camembert cheese within 5 meters of you. You age at like ⅓ the rate in hibernation (or something like that). I’d gladly trade a week of reduced useful lifetime in exchange for a later death (experiencing more of the future than otherwise possible). The idea of being able to easily flip the middle finger to Boeing would also be a nice perk. (#boycottBoeing)

The experts at Good Judgment weigh in on the coming year

archive.ph or directly on GJOpen.

The core difference between polls and prediction markets is that in prediction markets, participants have an incentive to be correct.

Exposing misinformation online is hard to do at scale and can veer into outright censorship. The wisdom of crowds can lead us to the answers.

There is increasing concern about the reproducibility of scientific research. For example, the costs associated with irreproducible preclinical research alone have recently been estimated at US$28 billion a year in the United States. However, there are currently no mechanisms in place to quickly identify findings that are unlikely to replicate. We show that prediction markets are well suited to bridge this gap. Prediction markets set up to estimate the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in The Reproducibility Project: Psychology predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of individual forecasts.

around the paywall.

Our interviewee, Jason Matheny, championed research into human judgment and forecasting at the R&D lab for the intelligence community: the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, or IARPA, which he directed from 2015-2018.

INFER regularly releases reports summarizing forecast trends on the strategic issues we are monitoring. Our latest report is dedicated to the question of whether Iran will develop a nuclear weapon.

The report includes a snapshot of the current crowd forecasts related to this issue as of last week since the Hamas attack, as well as detailed insights into trends and forecaster rationale summaries.

• It is highly likely that Hamas will lose control of Gaza City in the coming months
• 61% chance the death toll in Gaza is >25,000
• Hezbollah joining the conflict is a realistic possibility

Kevin Roose: So prediction markets — what do you think?

Casey Newton: Well, like I said, I think that there is clearly some value here. I think that a lot of this is innocuous fun. And I think it’s probably something that we should continue to explore.

Thus in summary, GPT2030 could automate almost all mathematics research as well as important parts of other research areas, and it could be a powerful vector of misuse regarding both cyberattacks and persuasion/manipulation. Much of its impact would be limited by “oversight bottlenecks”, so if it could run autonomously for long periods of time then its impact may be larger still.

I had never before attended a business conference with a 28 percent chance of an orgy.

I have participated in the Metaculus Quarterly Cup these past three months. This is a tournament that runs over just three months. [...] This has given me a chance to fairly evaluate my forecasting abilities. Interesting and humbling!

INFER forecasters and experts agree on the most likely scenario: The status quo will continue, with Iran staying formally in the deal and without any party enacting snapback sanctions. However, there is considerable disagreement over the likelihood of different scenarios.

Top 5 from the article:

• Sudan (97%)
• Afghanistan (60%)
• Ethiopia (50%)
• Burkina Faso (45%)
• Democratic Republic of the Congo (40%)