Movies and TV Shows

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“Breaking up is hard to do,” emphasized Guggenheim analyst Michael Morris before also posing the more ominous question: “Is this the video tipping point?” MoffettNathanson analysts Craig Moffett and Michael Nathanson echoed that, asking: “What is the future of video?” And LightShed Partners’ Rich Greenfield and colleagues went all Star Wars, wondering of the Charter CEO: “Can Chris Winfrey destroy the sports media Death Star?”

The very fact that all these experts used such colorful phrases, worthy of a Hollywood blockbuster film script, shows just how seriously Wall Street is taking the battle of the titans that erupted Aug. 31.

The resulting blackout of Disney channels in Charter households hit at a critical time, with ESPN’s networks airing the U.S. Open tennis tournament and a college football game between Utah and the University of Florida.

Beyond the company-specific financials, other experts also see the potential of an industry sea change and risk for all big Hollywood companies as two gigantic corporations jostle for leverage in the age of cord-cutting and streaming.

Despite cord-cutting accelerating, the MoffettNathanson experts had so far “not yet seen any significant pushback in affiliate fee negotiations with those companies that we have labeled ‘cheaters,’ or those leaking their premium content to their own streaming services (i.e., Paramount and NBCUniversal),” they pointed out, speaking of an “impoverishment cycle.” But the analysts concluded that everyone is at risk: “The stark reality is the media and distribution landscape has been building up to this moment for many years.

Fox has the greatest exposure to linear affiliate fees relative to its peers but should stand to take a greater share of the overall pie as long as its premium content remains exclusive to the pay-TV bundle.”

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