this post was submitted on 25 Jun 2024
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oh sure, it's an excellent company as a long-term hold. This is still a bubble and I think the numbers will go down when it pops.
I agree this increase is insane and without parallel AFAIK. It seems to be too good to be true, and normally that means it actually is too good to be true.
It's also hard to believe that Nvidia will be allowed to stay ahead in a market with such profit potential.
But for 8 years they've not only kept their market advantage and profit margins. They've actually managed to increase both.
I thought Nvidia was crazy when they made chips that yielded only one per wafer, I thought AMD would beat them with more agile chips at a fraction the price.
So the question is when you call this a bubble, do you mean demand for compute will stop increasing as much as it is? Do you think AI will flop?
In some ways I think AI already flopped somewhat from the initial hype of ChatGPT. But I do not think that will stop the race among companies to implement AI to keep up or stay ahead og the competition. It seems like AI is like a weapons race, and I bet it will go on for at least 5 years. Then if it turns out not to be the advantage companies hoped for, it will obviously slow down.
But I think Nvidia has a few years of good running ahead of them yet.
I think this "AI" (a marketing term) bubble will flop per the article we linked in the post: this is a bubble fueled entirely by investors, mostly VC, throwing money into a fire of unprofitable businesses selling services at a loss that don't actually work.
I spoke to a pile of AI industry peons who think the VCs will get sick of setting money on fire by the end of this year. I woulda given it two years myself - there are hundreds of billions of dollars desperate for a home - but the number I was consistently hearing in March was "three quarters".
Maybe the Nvidia price will weather it. It took a hit when crypto crashed, though not a huge one.
The next AI winter can't come too soon. They're spinning up coal-fired power plants to supply the energy required to build these LLMs.