Загальні бойові втрати противника з 24.02.22 по 24.01.24 орієнтовно склали / The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 24.01.24 were approximately:
особового складу / personnel ‒ близько/ about 378660 (+840) осіб / persons, танків / tanks ‒ 6227 (+13) од, бойових броньованих машин / APV ‒ 11579 (+31) од, артилерійських систем / artillery systems – 9008 (+61) од, РСЗВ / MLRS – 971 (+1) од, засоби ППО / Anti-aircraft warfare systems ‒ 659 (+2) од, літаків / aircraft – 331 (+0) од, гелікоптерів / helicopters – 324 (+0) од, БПЛА оперативно-тактичного рівня / UAV operational-tactical level – 6998 (+37), крилаті ракети / cruise missiles ‒ 1842 (+22), кораблі /катери / warships / boats ‒ 23 (+0) од, підводні човни / submarines - 1 (+0) од, автомобільної техніки та автоцистерн/ vehicles and fuel tanks – 12005 (+49) од, спеціальна техніка / special equipment ‒ 1416 (+7)
Дані уточнюються / Data are being updated.
source: https://t.me/s/GeneralStaffZSU
9008 out of 5.689 they had beginning of the war according to minusrus. Minusrus has a bit different categories, but in general it seems like all they have left is barrels from N-Korea and what they can produce. No matter how that's counted, it has to have an impact on what Russia can do on the field. I haven't checked on what kinds of amounts they can produce, but I heavily doubt it's 60/day.
Russia has access to massive amounts of old Soviet artillery storage. Before the war it was 12345 towed and 5093 self propelled, but that includes once which can not be fixed. Unfortunatly satellite imagry is unable to show that. However half a year ago they were already down to 7500 towed and 4408 self propelled. Given that that was half a year ago, it propably is worse today and a lot of what is left is propably to bad to be fixed.
The more I look at it, the more Russia is struggling to keep the war going. If the US would continue its support I would be pretty sure Ukraine is going to win.
And if the west in general would stop fearing for the ghost of soviet union or something and give them what they need in quantities that they need. I of course understand that it's a massively complex problem logistically, financially and even more so politically, but holding back long range missiles and things like that is just bullshit.
And besides US support, EU (and Europe in general) has to get their shit together with manufacturing and in general being ready once Russia eventually digs itself out of the hole it's been digging itself in. Currently things seem to move in that direction in general, but who knows what'll happen in a year or 5.
Nearly all of Russia's weapons have been made in the Soviet Union. It is able to repair them, but for many unable to develop new once and produce them in quantity. As soon as the stockpiles have been destroyed it is going to be nearly impossible to rebuilt them.
Even worse Russia's population is falling. The number of births last June was at a record low. Many regions reported double digit drops compared to a year earlier. As far as I can tell, they stopped publishing data after that. That is what happens, when you have a lot of young men emigrate your country and even more importantly your economy is a dumpster fire. Thanks to a lack of Western medicine this seems to get even worse. In Russia life expectancy for a 15 year old boy is worse then in Haiti. In 2021 Russia's population shrunk by a million people due to Covid. It seems like this is not going to be the only time that happened. Russia is shrinking. If it does not get Ukraine's population to fuel the next war, it will have a huge problem. That is especially true, due to it no longer receiving migrants.
We see massive infrastructure failures all over Russia. Rolling blackouts become common and district heating systems fail. Russia currently has no money to fix this, which means it is going to get even worse. Industrial production besides war related products has dropped of a cliff. The only thing keeping the Russian economy alive is the military industry. For the rest we see sky high interest rates and high inflation. This means stagflation has already started. Gas revenues are down a lot and oil revenues are dropping. At the same time the war chest is half empty. As soon as that goes down Russia is going to cut back even more on infrastructure.
So I honestly doubt Russia comes out of this hole. The only things going for Russia are nukes and oil. The rest just points to a long term structural decline. Natural population decline, awful economy and complete lack of technical innovation as all the talent moves abroad. Even a stalemate is a loss for Russia in this war.
@MrMakabar @IsoKiero
In parallel, almost the same in Ukraine. Due to war and the stupidity of Zelenskyy's team, western do not rush to invest in Ukraine.Incoming Trumps' administration speaks by slogans and cannot manage situation even in the USA (remember COVID-19?).
Incoming to power fascist's party in France will not add optimism for force coming events. The point where there was no turning back is still reaching now. The real catastrophe of humanity will be averted by the decay of Russia.