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So, how do you think the Court will justify keeping Trump on the ballot?
I don't think they can argue #1, because a lower court found that he had done insurrection, and my understanding is that they cannot overrule that finding. #2 won't stand because it never required conviction historically.
I really don't know how they're going to justify it, but I'm sure they'll find a way. Maybe it's on your list.
Edit: I have consulted a legal expert, and they said that the supreme Court can overrule "facts" determined in other courts, but it is generally only for egregious things and is generally frowned upon.
Why could they not overrule that finding? That's literally what appeals to higher courts are for.
It's their job to interpret the law and to determine if the law was applied correctly. They will not however dispute those findings. You will see, they will not debate that Trump is an insurrectionist.