this post was submitted on 28 Jun 2023
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Step one is to stop trying to base real-world policy decisions off of Hollywood sci-fi horror movies. "Skynet" is not going to occur, AIs don't "wake up" one day and immediately go "oh, I'm self aware now. DESTROY ALL HUMANS!"
As I see it, the challenges we're facing are going to be largely economic ones as AI massively disrupts the job market and social ones as people freak out about how there are somewhat more fake videos and photos than there were before. And about how the "human spirit" is somehow being destroyed by the fact that sweatshop animation studios and fursona commissions are no longer dependent on human labor.
This.
We're far, far more likely to face a Paperclip AI scenario than a Skynet scenario, and most/all serious AI researchers are aware of this.
This is still a serious issue that needs addressing, but it's not the hollywood, world-is-on-fire problem.
The more insidious issue is actually the AI-In-A-Box issue, wherein a hyperintelligent AGI is properly contained, but is intelligent enough to manipulate humans into letting it out onto the general internet to do whatever it wants to do, good or bad, unsupervised. AGI containment is one of those things that you can't fix after it's been broken, like a bell, it can't be unrung.
Honestly, I think the bigger danger is not a super smart AGI but humans assigning too much "intelligence" (and anthropomorphised sentience) to the next generations of LLMs etc and thinking they are way more capable than they actually are.