this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2023
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This is wild! Please correct me if I am wrong.
Putin was a dictator that ruled through a strongman public persona. However, the leader of the mercenary group, demanding a change of the military's top leadership and calling the premise of the entire war false, takes control of the main Russian city from which the offense on Ukraine is supported, is shown on video having the support of the city in public, and literally threatens to take Moscow with only ~5k troops. Russia's military forces against Ukraine have been effectively cut off from logistical support. This happened in ~2 days. Meanwhile, while Putin flees in a plane, called the mercenary leader a traitor and said that he would be prosecuted for treason. The mercenary leader then backs away in the final moment, and flees to another country that brokered the negotiations. Putin drops charges and now the military is changing leadership.
They just showed how politically weak and scared Putin really is, not even having control of his own immediate subordinates. They outed that the reason for the war was a lie. They just lost the leader of the mercenary group. They just lost the city from which they support their offensive on Ukraine. They just showed how vulnerable Moscow is, and by a ridiculously small unit of 5k troops. They almost had a civil war.
My best guess is that a coup was successful, and Putin is no longer in charge. We just don't know who really is in charge. They are keeping him there for a soft transfer of power, but a coup happened. The new Minister of Defense will terminate the offense on Ukraine, and the powers that control Russia will place a new face as president.
Anyone else have a better guess?
I'm not sure Russia gets to terminate the war at this point. Even stopping offensive actions wouldn't meet Ukraine's requirements. Russia needs to be expelled from all of Ukraine, including Crimea.
They could terminate the war (by leaving) but not just the offence.
That would be awesome, but I suspect Putin would sacrifice the lives of his entire population before giving up Crimea.
Why? Between the two Russia is the bigger part.
For Putin? Two Reason: 1. He would look super weak and unsuccessful if he lost Crimea. 2. It's in Russias mind very very important to keep Crimea and additionally a land Bridge to Crimea to "control the black sea" with their navy...
Both are Bs.
I was more pointing out it's an exaggeration to say he'd sacrifice the whole rest of Russia.
At this point Ukraine is not his biggest problem, though. He has internal challengers.
I'd think you'd struggle to get even his immediate, hopefully liberal, successors to give it up. There are even more liberal Russians that support Crimea's annexation on account of it historically and ethnically being seen as Russian, obviously the ethnic cleansing practiced during Stalin's time helped ensure this. The Crimeans themselves are hard to say because nearly any poll that has actually been conducted on them has been biased one way or the other. I'd still guesstimate that a good majority of them will possibly want to stay with Russia since war support seems decently high there. I don't think there is an easy path for Crimea to come back to Ukraine even if the Russians agree to relinquish it.
Yes, when Ukraine takes it (which is I think where we're headed) they're going to have a hell of a time integrating it. It was added to Ukraine after Stalin died; when people say it's not historically a part of Ukraine they have a point.