this post was submitted on 23 Jun 2023
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I’m not so sure about it.
Reddit is one of the biggest site on the web, has millions of users and thousands of communities that alone are much bigger than any of it’s alternatives.
People using third party apps are a small minority and in a month things will be much calmer.
However, I can really see lemmy and kbin as an alternative in a few years if the people moving now stick around. Not only that but with better content also (like Reddit a few years ago).
I don't think they will lose a lot of users on 1st of July. But some moderators will leave, others will continue with shitty tools that make their job hard. Overall, there will be more spam and more rule-breaking comments. Whether it will be bad enough to make people leave the site at some point, I don't know.
It's definitely a slow bleed, but most people aren't content creators or visionaries. They will migrate with time, we just need the tools here and things will grow.
I have no doubt that federation will lead to the best network of positive forums
Yeah, unless whoever is paying for it stops funding it or something dramatic happens, I can't imagine there will be a "Digg v4" day where everyone just decides to leave. I'm sure it'll be around a while, but I do think Reddit has peaked in terms of it's cultural relevancy.
I think because the federation isn't profit motivated it won't become enshittified which is what drives people away.
I know it will get better and evolve. I'm excitied to see how it evolves over time.
That's my hope as well. If an instance starts to behave sketchy, users can pack up and leave without losing access to the wider network.
Plus, there's no incentive for Instances to endlessly grow. A lot of toxic behavior on social media stems from the fact that toxicity breeds engagement.