this post was submitted on 20 Aug 2023
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Why would the lingua franca change again? No type of Chinese, Indian, nor any African language has even remotely the same spread as English does. I'd wager some proficiency in English exist in a sizeable part of the population in almost every country on earth, same can't be said for most other languages (if any).
If history is anything to go by, the English speaking world runs into some trouble. Nothing much new comes out in English while somebody else becomes dominant in research and publishes in their language. That's getting picked up in academia and politics and if anyone wants to be up to date, they learn that language. The other language now starts to distribute their movies exposing more people who pick up that language and spreading from there.
Sure, that can take a few generations. It's not like everybody just decided to switch right now
The thing is, we can't exactly go by history since we've never been as interconnected as we are now. Intercontinental travel could potentially be seen as "just" a huge step up in transportation compared to the past but the internet has fundamentally changed how we communicate. When it comes to technology and science, English is the de facto standard and it's gonna take something pretty huge to disrupt that.
Disruptions are in the near future. Energy systems are changing, climate change is going to wreck things, wannabe dictators starting wars and others. Usually one of those isn't a problem but a lot of those at the same time wrecked past civilizations. But you can't predict how it'll all turn out.
Yes, but the prerequisite is kind of that they will wreck the west (which is the main region keeping English as the lingua franca) but not the other regions when the west is likely going to be less impacted by a lot of issues than other parts of the world, for example just due to geography.