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Also, the scale of protest and organizing and protest in 2020 was orders of magnitude greater than right now. Trump may have increased the aggrieved class in this country, but he hasn't expanded their on the ground organizing. The fact that the right simply isn't nearly as organized (on the ground; I'll cede they may be more organized politically) makes this a very very different threat environment.
J6 didn't emerge out of nothing. They had been organizing MANY right wing events in the run-up to J6 to get MAGA trained up and activated to show up for that kind of event, for literally months before it happened. That has not happened so far, and there really isn't time to get that kind of groundswell activated.
The "will be wild!" tweet was, what? 12/19?
https://www.npr.org/2022/07/13/1111341161/how-trumps-will-be-wild-tweet-drew-rioters-to-the-capitol-on-jan-6
I think your point is that it only took a few weeks to get the participants in J6 to arrive?
Yeah, what you are missing are the literal months of right wing protests at the scales of 20k, 50k+ scale, along with the hundreds of other events happening nationally in support of the MAGA movement. Go find any rosecityantifa member who was on the ground in 2020 and see what they have to say in terms of the scale of rw organizing versus now. Trump's tweet acted on a movement ,on the ground that was material, and very very real (and well funded). That movement simply isn't as present today as it was in 2020. There isn't nearly the surface area for a tweet like to act upon.
Also, the tenor of commentary is different than it was this time in 2020. A lot more “someone should do something” and a lot less “I’m going to do something.”