544
Trump demanded 'special election' to reinstate him six months after leaving office: report
(www.rawstory.com)
this post was submitted on 13 Oct 2024
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politics
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Who would have guessed the giant man baby would throw a fit yelling "I WANT A DO-OVER!!"
I can't fucking believe this guy is going to be the president again...
Why would you think he will be?
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/08/28/key-things-to-know-about-us-election-polling-in-2024/
There's a lot to unpack in there but the following is the most concerning if you consider Kamalas current polling:
Even if the trend shown there was reversed Kamala is so damn close in current polls that any similar inaccuracy has her lose every swing state. I just don't see her winning, but I'm a seriously depressed pessimist so... Here's to hoping I'm wrong.
I just had to make a quick edit to laugh at the url that calls this a "short read" lol
Polling errors are not predictable beforehand. If they were, we wouldn't have polling errors. In 2022 for instance there was polling error in favor of democrats not against (or at least too much emphasis on polls with errors in Republican favor).
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html
We can't know the electorate beforehand, so poll weighting and deciding who is a likely voter is always going to involve some guesswork. So the opposite of what you say is true as well, if there is a small polling error that overstates Trump's support it would have Kamala sweeping every swing state.
But the polls show a close election, all we can do is do our best to do things that help her win. Like voting early to make sure our vote gets in no matter what, encouraging people we know to register and vote, volunteering, canvassing, donating, etc.