this post was submitted on 13 Aug 2024
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  • Ukrainian forces launched a surprise offensive into Russia's Kursk region last Tuesday.
  • They have captured around 1,000 square kilometers of Russian land so far, Kyiv's top general said.
  • That figure is almost as much territory as Russia has seized in Ukraine this year.
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[–] nednobbins@lemm.ee 7 points 2 months ago (9 children)

I've been looking for some sort of analysis of this Kursk incursion but have come up empty handed. I'm looking for something along the lines of Markus Reisner's analyses.

In particular, I'm wondering what the likely paths are to altering the course of the war.

How likely is it that Ukraine will be able to hold this territory? Will they be able to use it as a staging area to launch additional attacks?

Is it likely to alter the artillery equation? Russia currently fires 3-5 times as many artillery shells as Ukraine does. Does this do something like limiting their production rates or their ability to deliver ordinance to the front lines?

Is it likely that Ukraine killed or captured enough Russian troops to impact the broader war?

A phrase like, "That figure is almost as much territory as Russia has seized in Ukraine this year." kind of implies that there has been a shift in the momentum of the war and that we can expect such announcements more regularly going forward. Is that actually likely?

My pessimistic guess is that this was a brilliant tactical move that will ultimately get steamrolled by Russia's sheer mass, but I'd love to read an analysis from someone with more expertise.

[–] kinther@lemmy.world 2 points 2 months ago (1 children)

As much as I hate linking to it, you could probably find out by asking in the defcon warning system forums.

[–] nednobbins@lemm.ee 2 points 2 months ago (1 children)

defcon warning system forums

I'll check them out. I'm curious why you wouldn't want to link to them. Do they do something bad?

[–] kinther@lemmy.world 2 points 2 months ago

Last I checked in there some of the posters had a hard right slant. It's not all of them, but enough to leave a bad taste in your mouth.

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