Everyone seems to be pointing to the Microsoft EEE model without explaining how it has changed since the 90s. Here's what it will look like in today's tech climate. (I forgot to mention in this wall of text that there will probably be a name change or two. Especially if there's a major controversy.)
Meta will play nice for a year or 2. They'll cordon off the Meta instances, respond to complaints from Mastodon users, hell, they might even open source some of their code. It'll seem alright.
All your FB and IG followers will one day appear. Meta flipped a switch and integrated ActivityPub into their apps. You'll be annoyed, but hey, more traffic = support for the technology, etc. Now you don't have to log into your FB account and have a little more control over your FB and IG feeds, so it doesn't seem too bad. That wasn't worth all the debate. Just block or defederate and move on.
Maybe you go to check out Threadscon a fun event with special panels and contests. They even highlight the great Mastodon contributions and influencers. They really value their Mastodon partners!
A few months later...
You get a notification from a relative - they want to Splork over Threads. Wait, WTF is Splork? Oh, it's the hot, new video messenger that also tracks your heart rate, or some shit. But, you can't Splork from Mastodon and it'll never be added because it's closed source and encrypted for 'Security' and 'The Children'.
You figure, "Fine, it's the same content. I'll try to only use Threads for Splorking and use Mastodon for everything else." You feel guilty, but you continue to promote Mastodon when you can. Meta even seems supportive. Oddly, there's more people on Mastodon that are all for Meta's move into the space. At least, I think they're people. I guess some could be bots. Haha! How pathetic, if Meta stooped so low. At least I'm not gullible enough to fall for that. Ding! Oh, a notification about that 4,984 page argument I'm having with that definitely real, flesh and blood, human person over Meta's influence on the Fediverse. They make some good points, but I'm Ride or Die with my Purple Pachyderm.
Several months later...
It's Splorkcon! (They changed the name from Threadscon.) Back is the special section, just for Matodoms! Wait, what's a Matodom? "Oh, oops," the Meta rep chuckles dismissively. "Our bad." Your badges get you into and Mastodon section. There's free watered down Crystal Light and a shallow foam pit. Well, that was a downgrade. But, the Meta rep said it was an oversight. You find out the event coordinator came down with a nasty case of missing lung syndrome. You should try to be understanding. They're people, too. I'm sure there's a good reason none of the 1.4 billion employees couldn't take up the mantle. Besides, you doubt you could lose the support of ALL the jilted con-goers to a ton of swag and giveaways.
A few months later...
You start to notice Mastodon slowing down... Meta doesn't have to worry about their data budget like Captain Spanky of the USS Toke and Joke (your home instance). Meta's transfers have gotten a bit... verbose... with their contributions to the codebase. You could set up your own instance of pure Mastodon for the community. You know, for the health of the network, because you sure as shit aren't going to use a non-Splorking instance. (Also, the plugin you use to cross post between the two instances broke 3 weeks ago and you didn't notice.)
A few months later...
Good news, everyone! Meta's going to donate $1,000,000 to the Mastodon Consortium over the next 2 years! See, I told you that whole Splorkcon thing was an honest mistake. Hey, is it just me, or is Mastodon really, really getting slow?
You get curious. I mean, do you even know what you're protesting anymore? It would be irresponsible for you to NOT to explore Threads more. You know. To see why people use it; for competitive intelligence. Let's see if that Splorkified app is slo.... oh wow. It's very speedy. Maybe I'll use it a little more. After all, it's still supporting my beloved (mostly) open sourced protocol, even if it is Meta's app. I'll make my icon the Mastodon logo and try to minimize my use of the splorking feature. That will matter.
A few months later...
Even more good news! Meta's going to allow any instance to join their high speed interconnect. They'll even pay you $0.0005 for each petabyte you transfer. No obligations, cancel anytime, if you don't like it, you can return it within 30 days for a full refund, no questions asked. In return, they only want us to allow them to add a teensy tiny advertisement to each post. Nothing fancy, no images or animations. Hell, you could probably block it with a single line of CSS. You're suspicious, but ultimately conclude it's a reasonable request. They DO have to make SOME money to justify all the help they're giving us.
A few months later...
Meta flips another switch. They announce, "You can now feel assured that your voice is heard even louder, thanks to Weavle. Weavle leverages the power of the Fediverse to connect you with others discussing your favorite topics! It synergizes across all Meta's apps to bring you a complete experience." Translation: You're now autosubscribed to all the users on every instance within Meta's instance empire because your aunt and 2nd cousin liked getting in political debates about Joe Biden's left sock. In comes the flood of engageme... I mean, conversations. However this happened, it caused a bunch of chaos with no simple solution. Well, except THAT.
The Mastodonians start to chatter about how they'll address the Meta problem. Once they get through the told-ya-sos, finger pointing , and copy-pasting the wall of text you're currently reading, they start to defederate Meta instances. When will then be now? Soon.
Not everyone follows. Admins of high population instances would lose access to the high speed network if they leave (that was considered a solved problem, so no one really concentrated on an open solution). Some users cultivated followings of thousands of definitely real, non-bot, Turing Test passing if grading on a curve, human people. They can't leave their community. How would they find out about RAIDDDD Shadow Leg... um, they have sponsors. Go with the nerds, they get $2. Go with Meta, they get $15. The difference in platforms to them are Splorking and the color of the icon.
All your contacts are scattered, 75% still not fully understanding what a 'browser' is, let alone a federation. They just know they're cut off from some of their friends. Splork isn't working because of something those "evil hackers" did. At least Meta released a new Splork filter that lets you sing a duet of "Hurt" with an AR cartoon stalk of broccoli. You start to explain to your contacts how they can set up their own instance. 30 minutes in, they ask, "So, do I have to turn the computer on, or...?"
A few months later...
Fuck it! You knew Meta couldn't be trusted! Time to refocus on your instance. Be the change you want to see in the world.
You tell your family to join your instance and they do. Excellent! "So, how do we Skrank again?" "You mean Splork?" Yeah, that's it." Ruh roh! That's not a Mastodon feature. You can install the Splorktastic Upgrade Package, but then the Mastodon folks will defederate from you. Oh, and your instance users are piiiiiissed that a whole bunch of shit changed when they abandoned their old accounts. Important things, like the button on the right is now on the left. They are now skeptical of your advice on the topic. You're too techy. They want something simple and return to Threads. You resolve to be that one weird family member/friend that's difficult to get ahold of. This is a win. You were even able to resist the siren's call of the cartoon broccoli. Fight the power!
Maybe you can win one of those 20,000 different promo contests and giveaways for Splork users. You could show your support by donating the winnings to Mastodon! Surely that's effective, and not like trying to stop a bulldozer by throwing a gummy bear at it. In fact, you get 1,000 other Mastodonians to pledge their gummy bears, I mean contest prizes. (None of you end up winning.)
At the same time as all of the above...
The Mastodon developers are having a little trouble. Apparently, 50 core devs working 12 hrs/day solely on Mastodon can't keep up with the 2,000 hand selected specialists working on Meta's fork. Who would have thought Mastodon would need more than the $95,000/yr they currently have. Why that's a whole... 0.0000136% of Meta's value. If you really zoom in, you see that's a whopping 0.0033% of their Q1 2023 revenue. The $1,000,000 donation? No one knows exactly, but it appears on the books as "expenses". Coincidentally, everyone at the Mastodon Consortium is sporting custom, limited edition Heelys. Nobody else has time or the knowledge to deal with the massive codebase.
Finally, it all comes to a head. Meta experiences the most devastating data breach in history and videos of the top brass leak, letting the world catch a glimpse at their weekly "throw puppies into a pit of lemon juice coated spikes" meetings. You know what that means... big new product press release time!
"Regrettably, we are going to have to end our partnership with Mastodon. They've been great, but we see so much potential in the Fediverse that we've carved out our own little corner, based on our vision. We've been innovating too fast for even the passionate and capable open source community to keep up and we wish them the best in this new chapter of their Fediverse. Don't worry - we'll try to keep the confusion to a minimum. We even have a name for our new virtual space. We'd like to show you today... our Metaverse"
Wait, did he just say Metaverse? (Yes.) I thought that was a VR thing? (It was. No one bought it.) Well, clearly this was the plan all along. (It wasn't.) I have renewed confidence in Meta. (You shouldn't.) Give them more money. (You will.)
In the end, only a handful of people knew the game plan. Everyone else worked with the best of intentions. Maybe there were a few false starts, mini controversies, or sacrificial firings. It doesn't really matter.
Mastodon sticks around for a while with 0.000011% of the "Fediverse" users. Good! You got rid of the riff raff. If the codebase was fucked beyond recognition, things will start to break, security issues will increase, and it'll be a fondly remembered footnote within a year. If the codebase can be cleaned up or rolled back, you could Weekend at Bernie's this shit forever. Every feature suggestion will get shot down for fear it resembles Threads too much, or because it leaves the "platform" (25 people and 7 bots.) vulnerable to more Meta instigating. No one wants to be the one to take Old Yeller behind the barn because everyone's egos, memories, and trauma are tied to it.
Years pass. Your Mastodon instance is going strong. You're talking to a colleague and they mention a Threads post. You tell them you didn't see it because you use Mastodon. "Isn't that, like, the super old version of Threads?" You say, "Yes..." but stop before going into the summary you've recited 1000 times. This person doesn't care. A social network is neither with only one user.
I mean, all this MIGHT happen. I could be totally wrong. (I'm not.)
