Following. Curious to see the how here (which country, what visa or programme, eligibility requirements, etc).
abff08f4813c
joined 2 months ago
Oh, interesting. Do you have a source regarding the turnout? What I've been reading elsewhere suggests that turnout wasn't depressed except compared to 2020 - which may have been a fluke due to the pandemic - but the sources I have (such as https://dailyiowan.com/2024/11/06/2024-election-reaches-second-highest-voter-turnout-in-the-past-century/ ) aren't clear on hard numbers or stats.
A different commenter on this thread (see https://lemmy.world/comment/13325248 ) claims that orange voldemort actually got fewer votes in this election than in 2020. No source was provided and I'm a bit skeptical, but if you both are right (contradicting the sources I have pointed to in my other comments) then it suggests a) that there was no such shift and it was merely a turnout issue and b) that more leftist or progressive policies might do the trick!
Which are much easier problems to solve than to deal with folks actually moving their beliefs and votes to the right.
so I’m not sure where you’re getting this idea that Dem voters moved to Trump.
This makes me think you're replying without reading. I'll make it easy for you though and quote my earlier comment,
Consider that he's gained in previously blue strongholds, like in Beverly Hills as per https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-07/trump-victory-by-the-numbers/104573034 and even in Brooklyn as per https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/06/trump-voter-gains-new-york-00188078
Moving on,
But even if your claim were true, it would still indicate that moving to the right is ineffective, because in that case it failed to stop them from leaving.
This is a good point. Agreed.
Trump got 72 million votes in 2024, compared to 74 million votes in 2020,
Citation needed.
What I'm aware of (e.g. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/07/uncalled-house-senate-races-popular-vote-2024-election/ - https://archive.is/W93jB) says we don't have the final popular vote counts yet.
It’s just utter nonsense no matter how you try to look at it.
No, nonsense doesn't make sense. But this does make sense. The issue is - if I'm right and the whole country is moving rightward, then Dems can only survive by also moving to the right.
In other words, one interpretation is that Dems and Harris didn't go far right enough.
I hope that's wrong though, since it suggests lefties like myself are an endangered breed.
how much I do not mean
That's fair - would be helpful then if you state what you do mean. Or in other words, what you think would be effective in "mobilizing and energizing the base."
So that one comment outweighs the entire rest of the campaign where she moved to the right to try to appeal to moderate republicans?
It wouldn't - if that had happened. But - while it is true Clinton tried to get moderate Republicans on board back in 2016, she really didn't shift at all for them. Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/while-wooing-republicans-clinton-sticks-progressive-policy-n628501
And the next time that the democrats try this and it blows up in their face yet again, there will be some random comment that means you can exclude that data point too.
Again, it's more than just a random comment.
Hey, you know what, Harris called republicans “weird.”
Hmm.. I don't recall this actually. Citation needed.
So I guess we can’t count this either as an example of your ideology being proven decisively wrong for the upteenth time.
Well, you can't count it as that, but for a different reason - you've failed to prove anything wrong, let alone decisively.
In any sane system without FPTP and with RCV or similar, though, those who got pushed out could easily form a new party. I could easily see one lead by Sanders and AOC.
But under the system we've currently got, they're both pushing voters for Harris instead. Because there's not really any other choice. They're right, but so are you. There's no place left for folks like us - we'll hold our noses and stick with the Dems because they're the least bad option, but so many transformative ideas are going to languish.
I was hoping that this was just because of the EC and gerrymandering - that the issue was structural and thus the votes that counted didn't accurately reflect what the country as a whole wanted. Meaning we could fix this by fixing the structure (e.g. abolishing the EC). New data however, suggests there is a real rightward and rightwing shift in this country, which is really painful to process.
What a ridiculous takeaway. They moved right and lost, but somehow this shows that moving right was the correct decision? That’s nonsense, it shows the exact opposite.
Sorry, you are saying that folks joined the GOP and voted for orange voldemort because .. he was to the left of Dems?
Kamala went chasing after the mythical “moderate republican swing voter,”
As part of a broader coalition. Not after them solely.
in the meantime she neglected her actual base which meant less enthusiasm and mobilization.
I disagree. She was on places like "Call Me Daddy" and SNL - the outreach was there.
How many times does this strategy have to result in abject failure before you start to question it?
Well, it worked in 2020, but not in 2024. Meanwhile, Clinton did not purse this in 2016 - instead calling the worst of these folks "deplorables" - and still lost.
So the answer is - certainly more than just the one time.
This would make more sense if they just sat it out and didn't vote (or say voted third party).
But this doesn't make sense if they switched parties and voted for orange voldemort. All the reasons not to choose Harris (such as not being strong enough on Gaza) would apply even more strongly to that guy..
Tasmanian tigers?
I'd love to seem them come back as well, but keep in mind that it's much harder with an extinct species. I'm not sure which animal we could use as a host womb. Also, I suspect the tiger went extinct long enough ago that no live tissue samples exist - which makes it much harder to come up with a viable cell. (I think the current idea is to find the closet living relative genetically, and use CRISPR or something similar to rewrite the the bits that are different, and repeat until you have a living cell with identical DNA to the source).
I'm optimistic that these problems will eventually be solved, but there's still a ways to go here.
What bugs me about this election is that turnout of GOP and independent voters surpassed Dem turnout.
This makes me wonder if a bunch of former Dems switched parties between 2020 and now. Which would suggest that voters themselves are swinging rightward.
Consider that he's gained in previously blue strongholds, like in Beverly Hills as per https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-07/trump-victory-by-the-numbers/104573034 and even in Brooklyn as per https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/06/trump-voter-gains-new-york-00188078
To me, this seems to justify the Dems rightward swing - they are following the voters. No wonder Harris campaigned with Liz Cheney at her side.
But, it also makes me feel kinda sick inside. If the country as a whole is swinging rightward, that makes me wonder where I fit in - or even if there is any room at all with someone with my beliefs.
Alas, NATO stands for North Atlantic Treaty Organization - the A doesn't mean American. That's why Canada and the UK are members but Australia and New Zealand aren't.
Likewise, EU membership requires being a European country. There is precedent for this, as Morocco was denied when it applied to join for that very reason: https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1987-07-21-mn-5339-story.html / https://archive.is/hlOdB
Still, maybe Canada will luck out and that Europe thing will turn out to not actually be a requirement for joining Schengen or to join the EFTA. One can dream.
Without naming them explicitly, the article is trying to draw up sympathy for Gaza over the occupation by Israel. It makes some very good points.
2020 probably was an anomaly due to the pandemic and such.
I think what happened is that former Dems ended up registering as independents or even switched sides, and that's what drove up the higher turnout numbers for those groups. (But...why?)
Well, there's still some hope if Dems re-take the House. We'll see, I guess.
Yep. So that happened very close to Biden dropping out, hence I think I missed it in all the noise about the change.
It's good to have source though. In this case it provided additional context - the comments were limited to the top two, unlike Clinton who insulted potential voters. (Actually let's not kid ourselves - these folks almost certainly voted against her in the end.)
That's not unreasonable, but I'd argue it's premature. If the results change, that could invalidate the conclusion.
The sources I referenced seem to disagree with you, but after all they may yet be proven to have jumped to conclusions too soon as well.
Like I said, it's premature to conclude this.
I'll grant you this - if the final numbers show that the GOP didn't get more than 2020, and Harris ended up getting a lot less than Biden did (on the order of tens of millions), then I'll concede and agree.
Though I'll through in an additional wrench - I'd want to see what happens with the popular vote in California specifically. To rule out things like Dem voters in Republican or battleground states getting their votes suppressed as being the cause of the GOP win.
But if the numbers say differently - that more people voted this year overall, for example, then I'd argue that supports my original (and deeply disappointing) case. (I'm not sure year if 2020 is the right comparison either due to the effects of the pandemic - that might have been an unrepeatable one off. I'd also want to compare to 2008 or 2012 after adjusting the numbers for population changes.
Agreed. I confess that why his core voters like him so much remains a bit of mystery to me - even the most extreme on the right haven't been able to displace this guy, a new york liberal who basically stole their playbook and used the bits he liked.
But this puzzles me less than a Clinton and Biden supporting Dem turning red this year.
Like Clinton did in 2016, as per the NBC source I referenced earlier? We know how that turned out.
Yup, agreed. I can see Palestine/Gaza indeed being a sticking point. I still will never understand those folks who voted GOP because they didn't like Biden/Harris on Gaza - which many claimed to do as per https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/14/hamtramck-donald-trump-arab-american-muslim - but I could easily understand them sitting out or voting third party. And with Dick Cheney's history, that might influence single issue voters negatively who might otherwise be primed to want to believe in the best of intentions from Harris.
Of course, Harris was between a rock and a hard place on this issue - but we don't need to rehash all of that. From what's coming out now, it's clear that Harris wasn't able to strike the necessary balance and win over this important voting bloc - such as https://www.voanews.com/a/in-historic-shift-american-muslim-and-arab-voters-desert-democrats/7854995.html and https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2024/11/7/dont-dare-blame-arab-and-muslim-americans-for-trumps-victory - and I certainly can't rule out the possibility that your suggestion here might have been enough to swing things the other way.
If that's false - then how do people choose who to vote for? What else would be the measure that they use?
Well, they also tend to follow endorsements (hence why AOC and Sanders endorsed Harris), and do things like punish the incumbent if the economy feels really bad, etc. I'd agree that closeness isn't the sole thing.
Per your citation it was just the two folks who are heading to the White House, not Republicans generally.
Actually, she did - see https://www.npr.org/2024/10/30/nx-s1-5170908/harris-argues-that-trump-poses-a-threat-to-democracy-in-the-final-days-of-the-race & https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/15/harris-slams-trump-in-pennsylvania-as-us-election-race-heats-up