MrMakabar

They are propably out of the high quality ones and the old stuff they have shorter ranges. So they move them closer to the front. Also they are attacking, so they need to be closer due to that.

There are no warehouse full with weapons in Western Europe. Most of them have been sold. So you would have to take weapons from soldiers, which obviously weakens the military. That is especially true since they have to train.

Then soldiers are needed for tasks, which have nothing to do with Russia. For example the issues in the Red Sea right now. But there are also troops fighting terrorism in a lot of different countries, UN missions all across the globe and so forth. Those are also needed for national security.

Then you have Western troops depolyed near the Russian border. You have Baltic Air Policing and NATO Enhanced Forward Presence, which both are meant to protect the Baltic countries for example. There are quite a few examples like that.

Also it is obviously a problem, when you do not have soldiers deployed at home as well. Russia has things like landing ships and planes.

Nearly all of Russia's weapons have been made in the Soviet Union. It is able to repair them, but for many unable to develop new once and produce them in quantity. As soon as the stockpiles have been destroyed it is going to be nearly impossible to rebuilt them.

Even worse Russia's population is falling. The number of births last June was at a record low. Many regions reported double digit drops compared to a year earlier. As far as I can tell, they stopped publishing data after that. That is what happens, when you have a lot of young men emigrate your country and even more importantly your economy is a dumpster fire. Thanks to a lack of Western medicine this seems to get even worse. In Russia life expectancy for a 15 year old boy is worse then in Haiti. In 2021 Russia's population shrunk by a million people due to Covid. It seems like this is not going to be the only time that happened. Russia is shrinking. If it does not get Ukraine's population to fuel the next war, it will have a huge problem. That is especially true, due to it no longer receiving migrants.

We see massive infrastructure failures all over Russia. Rolling blackouts become common and district heating systems fail. Russia currently has no money to fix this, which means it is going to get even worse. Industrial production besides war related products has dropped of a cliff. The only thing keeping the Russian economy alive is the military industry. For the rest we see sky high interest rates and high inflation. This means stagflation has already started. Gas revenues are down a lot and oil revenues are dropping. At the same time the war chest is half empty. As soon as that goes down Russia is going to cut back even more on infrastructure.

So I honestly doubt Russia comes out of this hole. The only things going for Russia are nukes and oil. The rest just points to a long term structural decline. Natural population decline, awful economy and complete lack of technical innovation as all the talent moves abroad. Even a stalemate is a loss for Russia in this war.

Russia has access to massive amounts of old Soviet artillery storage. Before the war it was 12345 towed and 5093 self propelled, but that includes once which can not be fixed. Unfortunatly satellite imagry is unable to show that. However half a year ago they were already down to 7500 towed and 4408 self propelled. Given that that was half a year ago, it propably is worse today and a lot of what is left is propably to bad to be fixed.

The more I look at it, the more Russia is struggling to keep the war going. If the US would continue its support I would be pretty sure Ukraine is going to win.

Weil es andere Faktoren als nur Technik gibt. Zum Beispiel Arbeitsstunden. Wenn weniger Menschen, weniger hart und weniger Stunden arbeiten geht wenn alles anderes gleich bleibt die Wirtschaftsleistung zurück. Wir haben eine ohne Migration schrumpfende Bevölkerung und das bedeutet weniger Arbeiter. Viele dieser Arbeiter verstehen dann das sie nicht einfach zu ersetzen sind und Arbeiten weniger und weniger hart. Da sie halt nicht einfach zu Ersetzen sind, kriegen sie aber noch immer einen guten Lohn. Es gibt in Deutschland viele die eigentlich mit einer Teilzeitstelle klar kommen würden, aber Angst haben zu Reduzieren, da man gefeuert werden könnte, diese Angst ist weg.

Weil alle in der Gessellschaft davon profitieren. Unser System verteilt von Arm zu Reich. Wenn man also kein Wirtschaftswachstum hat werden die Armen ärmer. Das mögen die Armen allerdings nicht und das könnte dazu führen, dass die Armen das System fairer machen. Das will Herr Sewig und die anderen Reichen aber nicht.

That almost certainly is including private investment, which makes it a lot more possible. Especially with a lot of it replacing old fossil fuel infrastructure.

Sure, but basically only when they attack a large settlement. They at the moment do not tend to attack Ukranian field positions this way and you do not see them do it in the South, were the land is flat and open. You are going to see that happen in a year or so.

At the rate Russia is loosing tanks, they are out of repairable old Soviet tanks in storage in half a year or so. In a year they are at the number of casulties of UK in WW2. Ukraine just has to hold the line for a year and Russia is going to be wide open. As long as Western aid continues this is a very viable strategy. I fear that Russia is going to go full on human wave attacks, as soon as they are out of decent weapons. They are already bad, but this might get a lot worse for the average Russian.

But Russia is not using nuclear weapons, they write strategy papers about using nuclear weapons.

Nothing. This is to scare the West.

Russia is depleting its war reserves fast. That is both weapons produced by the Soviets and the sorveign wealth fund. Combine that with falling oil revenues and Russia has to cut back on civilan spending, which is already happening. That makes the life of the average Russian worse. Combine that with thousands of casulties and you have a population, which likes Putin less and less. Seriously we are at a point were 1:385 Russians is a casulty in the war in Ukraine. That means most Russians will know of somebody, who is a friend of a friend that has either died or has been badly injured in Ukraine. That obviously makes revolution more likely.

Then you have the option of helping Ukraine in freeing its territory. Russia can not hide large losses and they make Putin look weak. Especially things like blowing up the Kerch bridge and cutting the land bridge to Crimea are somewhat possible as next steps. Right now the front is stable, but Ukraine has had a year to prepare for a new break through and has already crossed the Dnipro near Kherson.

We already had Wagner marching on Moscow, so we know Putin has internal competition. This has happened before. Russia lost WW1 this way, Afghanistan has really hurt the Soviet Union and was a huge part of its break up and again Wagner showed that this is possible again. This is really the strategy to beat Russia. Slowly grinding them down.