The Greens are not part of von der Leyens coalition. Only EPP, Renew and S&D are. If the Greens would be part of it, she would have a save enough majority to get elected.
this post was submitted on 16 Jul 2024
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That's my understanding for the Greens. Not so sure for Socialists & Democrats (S&D) tho. As mentioned in the posted article:
Fratelli d’Italia’s opposition to the Green Deal puts von der Leyen on collision course with two pro-EU coalition partners – the Greens and EU socialists – who want the green flagship legislation to remain intact.
I mean I haven't spotted an article which claims that S&D changed their position. If you have a relevant one could you please share?
All groups but EPP are silent on the matter. However the Greens were not part of the previous coalition supporting von der Leyen. As of right now everything is open. Also Renew does not like the EPPs move to the right.
The problem is that the groups are not perfectly in line due to being made up of different parties. Combine that with secret voting and it makes back stabing all the more likely. So the best move for von der Leyen is to either make no deal with ECR and use the negotiations as leverage or make a secret deal with them, so S&D and Renew do vote for her. My guess is the former as without S&D and Renew she can not rule.