Hardly a study, but some numbers on gas https://www.artberman.com/blog/draining-america-first-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-shale-gas/ and tight oil Eagle Ford https://www.artberman.com/blog/eagle-ford-shale-a-preview-of-permian-decline/ and Permian https://www.artberman.com/blog/beginning-of-the-end-for-the-permian/
Some reasoning on why we are already potentially running critical on diesel https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/meet-the-gator-growing-energy-demand
I use video projectors. Many of them, typically the better ones do not have any built-in smarts requiring an Internet connection.
In general, smart devices are a major security risk, and need to be firewalled off.
Abstract
The Pine Island and Thwaites Ice Shelves (PIIS/TIS) in the Amundsen Sea are melting rapidly and impacting global sea levels. The thermocline depth (TD) variability, the interface between cold Winter Water and warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW), at the PIIS/TIS front strongly correlates with basal melt rates, but the drivers of its interannual variability remain uncertain. Here, using an ocean model, we propose that the strength of the eastern Amundsen Sea on-shelf circulation primarily controls TD variability and consequent PIIS/TIS melt rates. The TD variability occurs because the on-shelf circulation meanders following the submarine glacial trough, creating vertical velocity through bottom Ekman dynamics. We suggest that a strong or weak ocean circulation, possibly linked to remote winds in the Bellingshausen Sea, generates corresponding changes in bottom Ekman convergence, which modulates mCDW upwelling and TD variability. We show that interannual variability of off-shelf zonal winds has a minor effect on ocean heat intrusion into PIIS/TIS cavities, contrary to the widely accepted concept.
I have some good and some bad news. First the good one: we about on the cusp of fossil and hence all mineral resource extractability, having finally hit our limits of growth. The first bottleneck of the energy bottleneck appears to be the heavy hydrocarbon fraction, from which our diesel and ship bunker fuel originates. This constrains agriculture, mining and all shipping.
Now for the bad news: which is the same as the good news. This means lots of excess deaths this century, probably in the billions. The renewables we will be still able to deploy will not be able to cushion our fall. Without a renewable base that can power and maintain its own life cycle and also whatever surplus it provides for the rest of our activities the carrying capacity of this planet is less than a billion. Potentially, a lot less.
Long term storage requires an ongoing migration strategy. The whole ecosystem for reproduction gone away your pristine media will be inaccessible.
Sanctions are working.
Full human equivalent across all capabilities. Gen AI fails pretty much everywhere.
There is no real AI out there, yet.
There is no reliable risk assessment for truly intelligent, autonomous systems. Let's stop pretending that it can exist.
Abstract
Today's biodiversity crisis fundamentally threatens the habitability of the planet, thus ranking among the primary human challenges of our time. Much emphasis is currently placed on the loss of biodiversity in the Anthropocene, yet these debates often portray biodiversity as a purely natural phenomenon without much consideration of its human dimensions and frequently lack long-term vistas. This paper offers a deep-time perspective on the key role of the evolving human niche in ecosystem functioning and biodiversity dynamics. We summarize research on past hunter–gatherer ecosystem contributions and argue that human–environment feedback systems with important biodiversity consequences are probably a recurrent feature of the Late Pleistocene, perhaps with even deeper roots. We update current understandings of the human niche in this light and suggest that the formation of palaeo-synanthropic niches in other animals proffers a powerful model system to investigate recursive interactions of foragers and ecosystems. Archaeology holds important knowledge here and shows that ecosystem contributions vary greatly in relation to different human lifeways, some of which are lost today. We therefore recommend paying more attention to the intricate relationship between biodiversity and cultural diversity, contending that promotion of the former depends on fostering the latter.
This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere’.
Abstract
The exponential increase in plastic production coupled with variable global waste management system efficiencies has resulted in large amounts of plastic waste entering the ocean every year. Although we know millions of tonnes of plastic have entered the oceans, we do not yet understand the patterns of its accumulation across space nor the drivers of these patterns. The deep ocean is expected to be a resting place, or reservoir, for most plastic pollution. Here, we conducted a rigorous, systematic review of previously published datasets to synthesize our understanding of macroplastic pollution (>5 mm) on the ocean floor. Using extracted data, we built predictive additive models to estimate the amount and distribution of plastic on the ocean floor. We built two models: one using data from remote operated vehicles (ROVs) and another using data from bottom trawls. Using the model built with ROV data, which was better-constrained, we estimate that 3 to 11 million metric tonnes (MMT) of plastic pollution resides on the ocean floor as of 2020. This is of similar magnitude to annual inputs from land and one to two orders of magnitude greater than what is predicted to be floating on the ocean surface. To improve future estimates and our understanding of global patterns, we provide recommendations for ocean floor monitoring of plastic pollution.
Paper https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01274-1