This is good news. But you know, just to be on the safe side, let's all go vote for Joe anyway.
this post was submitted on 31 Jan 2024
172 points (91.3% liked)
politics
19120 readers
3466 users here now
Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!
Rules:
- Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.
Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.
Example:
- Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
- Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
- No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive. Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
- Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
- No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
That's all the rules!
Civic Links
• Congressional Awards Program
• Library of Congress Legislative Resources
• U.S. House of Representatives
Partnered Communities:
• News
founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
Winning California by a lot of votes doesn't matter if he loses Texas, Florida, Michigan, and Ohio.
Don't you guys love how 70% of the country just doesn't matter because everyone already knows what they'll be. So we get to only focus on a few of the most fucked ones to decide the election.
I love the Electoral College, I love FPTP voting, I hate popular votes. This is okay. We're gonna be okay. Everything is okay. Somebody please tell me it's going to be okay.
The world is more fucked up than it should be but it's also mostly better than it's ever been. There's no guarantee that either of those things will continue to be true though. Did that help?
If you're in a state that you know will vote exactly the way you would (by such a large margin that it can do it even if everyone thinking like you stays home), check what local candidates and propositions and such are on the ballot and whether there are any of those where your voice needs to be heard.
Of course, the answer might still be no - I've sat out elections in the past where I could see that my vote on every issue would just be running up the score on the side that had already won (and this did turn out to be correct). But it's worth checking just to be sure. There's more to elections than just congress and president.
load more comments
(3 replies)
some polls say he's losing some key swing states...
but also, i once worked at a call center that conducted political polls... in my own experience, they're total bullshit and normal, average, representative of the population people are not participating in these polls at all....
It’s fucking January.
The sex month
it sure beats Masturbating September...
Please, it's Self-love September
well when i masturbate, it's all hate
Someone help me develop a drinking problem. I'm gonna need it to get through the next year.
-
Step 1: Start Drinking
-
Step 2: Don't Stop
This sounds expensive. I'm poor.
Ignore other necessities and beg for drink money
due to the liquor laws in america, certain types of booze have very high quality standards....
namely Vodka, Scotch, and Bourbon...
(vodka must be made into nearly pure ethanol and then diluted, scotch must be aged 3 years in scotland... so it's always decent, and bourbon has a bunch of fun rules too... i don't really like bourbon though)
the health part always makes me stop my drinking problems though... i just can't handle it...
getting a little tipsy consistently is possible to maintain a functioning alcoholism though... be sure to stay extra hydrated and alcohol inhibits vitamin absorption... so... whatever
Can't drink all day if you don't start in the morning!
Damn, no wonder I have a drinking problem.
"The key to avoiding a hangover is to never stop drinking" - Col. Tigh, Battlestar Galactica
Ah that's where I went wrong, I got stuck on step 1, thanks!
Have you considered smoking? Alcohol gives me a headache. But there's many options on things to smoke - tobacco, weed, fentanyl, etc.. /s
I've tried it; it doesn't help.
Turn on Fox news and take a drink every time someone says something stupid. Two drinks if it's a debunked lie. See you in 2025!
Odds are slim they'll survive to 2025 drinking at that pace.
"Propelled by female voters in just the past few weeks, the head-to-head tie with Trump morphs into a modest lead for Biden.”
I got an idea, let's attack Taylor Swift! That'll help with our female-voter gap!
Imagine if 14 year-old girls could vote, it would be a landslide
I think Swift's main demographic is actually in the bracket 16-25 so plenty of voters there. The younger teens are, generally, into more fresh/new acts and stuff with more of an edge. Swift has been around for a long time now.
Yeah it might skew even higher than that. I'd say up to mid 30s almost at this point.
Republicans have already blamed her for costing them an election (Tennessee, maybe?) simply by telling her followers/fans to go vote. Not to vote for any particular race or candidate, just to go vote.
There's still a lot of eligible non-voters. Trump activated a non-trivial portion, but there's a lot more available to whomever can harness that power. Taylor Swift might be able to do it.
It's going to be a very long election cycle
Always has been...
Denial
Anger
Bargaining
Depression <--- we are here
Acceptance
Wtf is a dabda (/s)
I was watching the news the week after Biden's inauguration in 2021. They were talking about possibilities for the '24 election. I turned it off.
Reminder that national polls are useless because the United States doesn't have national elections. There are 50 individual state elections, plus Washington D.C., which establish 535 Electoral College votes, 270 to win.
States like Washington, Oregon, California are going to Biden, no contest.
States like Texas, Louisiana, Alabama are going to Trump, no contest.
The election will be decided by the toss-up states. Unless the poll is talking about one of these states it can be safely ignored.
Arizona: Trump +3 to +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Georgia: Trump +7 to +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Michigan: Trump +5 to +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Minnesota: Biden +3 same problem as New Mexico, it's an old poll from November.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
Nevada: Trump +8 to +12
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico: Biden +8 but the most recent poll is from August which is effectively useless now.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
Pennsylvania: Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Wisconsin: Trump +5 to +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Virginia: Biden +3, also an old poll, from December.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
Taking that information and plugging it into an electoral college map:
Trump wins, 312 to 226.
This is a change from the last time I posted this where Trump won, 278 to 260. Michigan and Pennsylvania are both now polling for Trump instead of Biden.
Previously, Biden needed to pick up +10.
Now he needs to pick up +44 which is a much, much, steeper ask...
These polls are useless too, without knowing who was surveyed (online, landlines, etc.). Also, polls this far from the election are just useless in general. Democrats are going to say they don't like Biden until it comes time to vote.
Most people remember the daily idiocy of the last time that smelly fatass was president. It's not a surprise. Democrats are going to come out and vote against Trump like they did before. They just don't care about answering polls to say they like Biden.
The same thing happened in 2020. Trump had a ton of rallies and Biden had none. Biden still kicked Trump's ass despite not being "popular".
The polling bias is more notable than ever in a world where no one under 40 answers their phones.
Eh most people under 40 aren't going to take a day off work to go vote either
Do they only poll via phone calls? I'm not a dinosaur, so Google Voice screens anybody not in contacts by asking their name. This defeats most robodialers, and having done a couple jobs which included political polls, you only get the call and poll script on your screen once the robodialer has confirmed it didn't reach a voicemail.
You'd get random campaigns based on what numbers were in the robodialer for the timezones it picked. You could be talking to some old guy who was lonely and wanted nothing more than a detailed talk about Ford trucks in between your questions about Ford's latest models, and the next call be questions such as, "if X candidate were to take a stronger position against giving free lunch to school kids, would the chance you vote for them increase, decrease, or stay the same?"
I did not last long at either job as it is soulkilling work
load more comments
(2 replies)
Haley leads Joe Biden 1 on 1
Thank you to Republican primary voters for making sure our mediocre candidate can't lose, go collect your prize of... I don't know, bank statements showing how much money you've thrown at the orange shit gibbon over the years and some stupid looking hats?
Also interesting to note that the this same poll has Haley beating Biden by 5 points if Trump is not on the ballot and Haley is the Republican nominee .
However, put Biden and Haley on a larger ballot with RFK Jr and the other nobodies running on 3rd party tickets, and Biden ends up winning again.
There is also zero chance Trump doesn't run. Either he's the nominee or he runs third-party and splits the vote. His ego (and legal trouble) simply won't allow him to sit this one out.
If Trump is not the nominee, or if he is judicially removed from the ballot, then he will still run as a write-in candidate.
And even if he doesn't run a write-in campaign, plenty of his supporters will write him in anyway
And even if he would get struck by lightning and pass away prior to November, his supporters would likely just write in Don Jr or Vivek or someone similar.
Under no circumstances is Nikki Haley ever getting even 80% of Trump supporters to vote for her in November. And if she can't get that, then there is no way she can beat Biden. A Nikki Haley victory in 2024 is not plausible
Biden could also die before the election. He's no spring chicken. Then maybe we get Haley vs Harris? Or some other dems jump into the primary race.
or if he is judicially removed from the ballot, then he will still run as a write-in candidate.
He's being removed from the ballot in states because they consider him ineligible to be president. That's not something that gets solved by a write-in.
That doesn't change the fact that his supporters will write him in even if he is found dead on the shitter
It's far easier to break things than maintain or build upon them. Always has been the case and always will. Such is entropy.
I confess Biden wasn't even my third choice in the 2020 primaries. But I voted for him anyway, and I'll vote for him again. Because, truly: democracy, equality, justice, truth, and the planet itself is on the line.
ONLY 10 MORE MONTHS! WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO....
...OOOOOOOOH!!!!
Good for Joe Biden.
view more: next ›