this post was submitted on 22 Jan 2024
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There is growing scientific consensus that 100% renewables is the most cost effective option.
Grid storage doesn't have the same weight limitations that EVs do, which opens up a lot more paths. Flow batteries, for one, might be all we need. They're already gearing those up for mass production, so we don't need any further breakthroughs (though they're always nice if they come).
Getting to 95% is surprisingly easy; there are non-linear factors at work to getting that last 5%, but you wouldn't need to use other sources very much at all. The wind often blows when the sun doesn't shine. We have tons of historical weather data about how these two combine in a given region, which means we can calculate the maximum expected lull between the two. Double that amount and put in enough storage to cover it. This basic plan was simulated in Australia, and it gets there for an affordable cost.
Then we can worry about that last 5%.
Nuclear advocates have been using the same talking points since the 90s, and have missed how the economics have been swept out from underneath them.
Supplying energy isn't only doing what's "cost effective." It's about meeting demand.
This is why when suppliers have difficulty meeting demand, prices go up.
If we only did what was the cheapest instead of what was required to meet demand, then our demands wouldn't be met and we would be without energy during those times.
Check the second link again. They were calculating how demand was met over time.
In Australia a mostly open, sparsely populated, continent sized island with vast amounts of sun wind and hydro, with people mostly gathered in a small band of the coast on one side (and still even then needed 1/3 of total generating capacity backed by fossil fuels).
It's great that oz can maybe get away with almost entirely renewable (maybe, that simulation is essentially just multiplying current generation by a large number, adding some storage and saying that mostly takes generation above demand, it doesn't do any sort of analysis of when where or how that energy is generated or makes its way to the sources of demand), but it's not a model for the rest of the world.