this post was submitted on 21 Nov 2023
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Like you say, "AI" isn't just LLMs and making images. We have previously seen, for example, expert systems, speech recognition, natural language processing, computer vision, machine learning, now LLM and generative art.
The earlier technologies have gone through their own hype cycles and come out the other end to be used in certain useful ways. AI has no doubt already done remarkable things in various industries. I can only imagine that will be true for LLMs some day.
I don't think we are very close to AGI yet. Current AI like LLMs and machine vision require a lot of manual training and tuning. As far as I know, few AI technologies can learn entirely on their own and those that do are limited in scope. I'm not even sure AGI is really necessary to solve most problems. We may do AI "ala carte" for many years and one day someone will stitch a bunch of things together, et voila.
Thanks.
I'm glad you mentioned speech. Tortoise-TTS is an excellent text to speech AI tool that anyone can run on a GPU at home. I've been looking for a TTS tool that can generate a more natural -sounding voice for several years. Tortoise is somewhat labor intensive to use for now, but to my ear it sounds much better than the more expensive cloud-based solutions. It can clone voices convincingly, too. (Which is potentially problematic).
Ooh thanks for the heads up. Last time I played with TTS was years ago using Festival, which was good for the time. Looking forward to trying Tortoise TTS.
Honestly I believe AGI is currently a compute resource problem less than a software problem. A paper came out awhile ago showing that individual neurons in the human brain displayed behavior like decently sized deep learning models. If this is true the number of nodes required for artificial neural nets to even come close to human like intelligence maybe astronomically higher then predicted.
That’s my understanding as well, our brain is just an insane composition of incredibly simple mechanisms. Its compositions of compositions of compositions ad nauseam. We are manually simulating billions of years of evolution, using ourselves as a blueprint. We can get there… it’s hard to say when we’ll get there, but it’ll be interesting to watch.
Exactly, plus human consciousness might not be the most effective way to do it, might be easier less resource intensive ways.