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I think that this article is accurate and sensible.
There's a point that I'd like to add, that the author doesn't mention: user trust.
The main value of an online platform is the user trust, as it dictates the users' willingness to help building it instead of vandalising it. In Reddit's case it means people writing well-thought posts, moderating communities, reporting content, using the voting system, etc.
And user trust is violated every time that a platform takes user-hostile decisions. Like Reddit has been taking for almost a decade; with 2023's APIcalypse being a big example of that, but only one among many.
And when user trust is violated, it's almost impossible to come back. John Bull explains this well, with the Trust Thermocline; but the basic idea is that those violations pile up invisibly upon a certain point, when they suddenly become a big deal and the platform bleeds users like there's no tomorrow. And once it reaches that point it's practically impossible to come back.
So perhaps we aren't watching Reddit die. Nor we will, in the future - because Reddit is already dead. What we're watching instead, with morbid curiosity, is a headless chicken running around, while we place some bets on when it will stop moving - so venture capital can have its dinner.
Well put
And also because the only other place my niche interests have communities is discord
And AI. AI is a wet dream to a company like Reddit, Facebook, or Twitter. They can keep the appearance of an active and popular site indefinitely, stealing money from advertisers years before they catch on.